This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card then long 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it’s always nice once you are already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the best, but there’s still a great deal of cash to be obtained. I will be pursuing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my money lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with action and his three UFC battles have all been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those types of fights are great for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock at a win and receive all the points at the best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the job done in money games and we’ll get over 100 points on this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we just have to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I believe that is what most folks will do and that is what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we will get him at a somewhat lower possession due to his massive salary, and he has an excellent shot at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO then he will have 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is totally faded, I believe that you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up a finish in this struggle so that I will throw him in some GPPs and hope he is under possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless value play of the week. Presently, Fili is your betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it’s available so I think he’s in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments with all the value we are getting on himbut I am willing to eat that chalk and that I do not want to get burned by entirely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps using his wrestling I presume he will have a good chance at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not require a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he’s the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal bias but I am not going to have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has only went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just looking to strike. I believe that this will be a remarkable battle as well and I think it will be closer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I think we will require a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that occurring. If you do think Dober can find a KO, then you should be playing him. I will only be paying up someplace since I’m not sure he can get that complete and that I would not be amazed if he even lost the fight. I will say that I never seem to use Dober in DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again but I will stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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